The impact of longer routes is most prominent in tanker shipping, with Russian oil flowing to China and India at a discount instead of making a short haul to Europe. Global seaborne trade growth (2021 = 100)Ĭlarksons, ING Research Tanker shipping is holding up better Trade is sailing longer distances following sanctions on Russia
With no signs of a reversal in policy, these extra miles will remain in place in 2024. With sanctions on Russian commodities coming into effect in batches, this will materialise in 2023 when seaborne ton-mileages are expected to gain more than 3% compared to a year earlier, which is more than the 1% trade growth we expect. Russian oil, gas, coal, iron ore, and metals trade are still finding their way to markets, but to different buyers. The massive reshaping of shipping routes following Russian sanctions - which we explain in more detail here - has led to significantly longer mileages. Shipping activity is holding up better than world trade figures suggest, specifically on the (liquid) bulk side.
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Faltering trade isn't the full story: longer trade routes push shipping demand higher Therefore, regional deployment across the globe will make a difference in carrier performance. Consequently, the development in intra-Asian traffic is likely to exceed the global average in 20, and the Middle East and Africa will follow suit. World merchant trade growth to lag GDP development in 2023-24Īgainst the backdrop of faltering economic growth in advanced economies, and emerging economies returning to their trend growth, trade activity is unequal across the world. Nevertheless, we still expect a stronger second half of 2023 once consumer spending on goods picks up alongside a normalisation of spending patterns, reduced inventories, and wage growth.
Growth is therefore set to remain low into 2024 and this means that shipping tonnage is also under pressure. Global trade has also entered a period of lower growth due to geopolitical concerns, protectionism, and supply chain reconsiderations. Global trade slipped into contraction at the end of 2022, following the rationalisation of piled-up inventories and the economic and industrial stagnation in the US and Europe. By Rico Luman, Senior Sector Economist Global trade is changing and so is shipping
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